India and the Romance of the Five Kingdoms

Photo caption: Indo-Pacific and Emerging economies alliance…. India led by Modi is lured by both camps with equal vigour… (Photo from Nikkei)

By Mayur Shah

On 1st December 2018, the headlines of the Indian Newspapers shouted: “Jai Ho” as the Indian Prime Minister’s summit with the US and Japanese counterpart yielded a landmark initiative on the Indo-pacific front. This was indeed an unprecedented development and a lot of credit goes to the Indian PM, under whose leadership India is rising as a force to be reckoned with. I have incorporated Nikkei newspaper article translation as latter part of my blog and it is worth reading how India is Romancing forward in this multi-polar world.

I maintain in many of my observations that the biggest success of India and her incumbent prime minister is in the art of diplomacy; an area where he was perceived the weakest. In this multipolar world, the advent of Narendra Modi has helped India’s cause immensely. Modi has focussed in his articulation directly and indirectly to global stakeholders on the vast potential of the Indian economy. He also charms democratic nations with shared values of free and fair dealings. He is also very good at using historical past as common thread to connect with other countries. Modi means business and he approaches his business in a very Gujarati way, and that is “Very Seriously”. Before we go to the article, let me give a background to the status of a multipolar world that we live in today.

The rise of China:

The new world order is shaping. Not just the cold war is thing of past, the economic might of erstwhile robust economies is also waning. China’s rise is a mixed package where each country always is in a conundrum to evaluate whether it is an opportunity or a crisis.

Yet the Chinese Juggernaut has rolled on with Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); building large-scale infrastructure and at the same time leaving clear debt trap, along with hosts of other problems for their host countries, only increasing unease for China’s immediate neighbors; namely Japan, Russia, and India. China has also realized the importance of Multi-polar world especially when it got caught unaware during trade-war with USA.

Age of Indo-Pacific:

Japanese Prime Minister Abe has been a strong proponent of the “Free and Fair Indo-Pacific”. India, he had thought was the clear and natural partner to further the cause. He tried hard to woo India but confused foreign policy under preceding Indian regime did not see much progress. At some point, Abe must have been frustrated as India was getting meeker towards China.

Things started to look up once Narendra Modi took the charge and his “Modiplomacy” came in like fresh air for Abe. Their friendship and special chemistry was the main reason; two countries saw their fortune twined together. Both leaders saw a clear and natural synergy and formed a Special Global Strategic Partnership.

Obama administration was also leaning towards the idea of supporting Indo-Pacific strategy, but president Trump as a shrewd businessman saw something to capitalize on and gave an audacious push to the cause.

The Rebounding Russia:

Resurgent Russia, on the other hand, is finding her feet in this new world order. And yet in this new world order, Russia is also equally wary of the Chinese rise. Interestingly, Russian premier has also met Japanese PM Abe often. Surprisingly both the leaders have met 22 times. This is unprecedented considering their very old disputes near northern Japanese island. Russia also sees India in the new light. So far it was an ally of cold war days, now in new equation, besides a reliable arms buyer, India is also indispensable to Russia to check Chinese rise in the neighborhood.

Modi and the USA:

Modi’s push with America has also seen a new found respect for India. The first time, an independent India has been delinked with Pakistan and seen as a potential and natural ally in this multi-polar world. Ironically he was denied a visa to the same country (till just five years ago) that is seeing a trusted and reliable partner in him now. India brings more to table for USA now from economy to geopolitical balance and shared values. Modi administration and his diplomats have worked hard to impress USA with all sincerity that India is a long-term bet for USA with no downside.

Yet in this multi-polar world, each country is on their own. Below is the direct translation of the article that appeared in Nikkei on shaping new world order.

The article was published In the morning edition of Nikkei Newspaper on December 2, 2018.

A tug of war for India: USA and Japan ally to oppose Belt Road Initiative, China and Russia tries to put a wedge in the plan…

(Link: https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGKKZO38438280R01C18A2EA3000/)

Japan-US and the Russia-china held talks of the tri-nation summit by including India respectively, on the sidelines of the G20 summit meeting that began in Argentina on 30 November. The composition of the tug of war between both camps became clearer for the inclusion of India, a rising regional power of Asia. The attitude of India to tackle its own diplomacy while paying attention to both sides can be said to be an indication that the US-led order began to shake in the wake of rising China.

At the beginning of the first Japan – US- India summit meeting, President Trump emphasised a close cooperative relationship between the economy and the military by making a statement that “Both Japan and India are in strong relationships more than ever with USA, We are doing a lot of cooperation with trade, defense, and purchasing weapons.” He further added that we agreed to deepen cooperation through maritime security and regional infrastructure development.

The foundation of the framework of the three countries is the ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’ strategy that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe launched in 2016. The countries that share values such as rule of law and market economy cooperate and aim to halt the expansion of the influence of China. At the beginning of the talks, the Japanese Prime Minister appealed, “Three countries sharing universal value and strategic interests will cooperate and make the area more prosperous.”

Mr. Trump, who assumed the post of president in 2017, was in sync with the Japanese and Indian prime ministers’ plan. As a result, the United States renamed the Pacific Army to the Indian Pacific Army. In October, Vice President Penny launched economic support of $ 60 billion to the Indo-Pacific region. An economy card played against China’s initiative for wide-area economic zone “Belt Road Initiative”.

A few hours after the summit between the Japan – America- India, the Russia India China held their leaders’ meeting for the first time in 12 years. Xi Jinping of China was quoted saying “close cooperation of the three countries shall be the pivot for world stability”. It is an important bind that we have wide range of common interests. He also stressed that we agreed to deepen cooperation on international issues and other matters.

For China, India is a mixed bag. On one hand, China recognizes India’s extreme unease with Border dispute. At the same time, China sees India’s 1.3 billion populations as a huge market and a formidable regional power.

When the Trump administration tightened the screws on trade-war with China, one of the first things Chinese Premier Xi did was to warm up to Indian Prime minister Modi. US from the West and India from the East, the double front chain circling China is the scariest thing for China. Warming up to India is China’s way to drive a wedge in the US siege network.

Xi moved fast and in April 2018, realized the meeting with Mr. Modi to strengthen measures to avoid border conflicts that were on the verge of collision (at Doklam). Just before the G20, China also held senior high-level talks aimed at stabilizing the border and took steps of reassurance to not to burn the flames again. China also used Russia to persuade India to join three-party talks, which took place for the first time in 12 years. The idea was to not to look directly opposing Japan-US-India alliance.

Indian Prime minister Modi is looking at both camps with equal alertness and said that “Japan-America-India summit talks” JAI takes the initials of each country, meaning success in Hindi.” At the same time, the Russia-India-China summit (named “RIC”), where he was quoted saying that “We will deepen involvement with precious partners.”

Mr. Modi said in June, “Indo-Pacific strategy” is not a club of exclusive members to target against any one country”. Audaciously, India continues to tread independent diplomacy while being strongly against China’s BRI, but has already joined the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), a Chinese initiative. Both Modi and Xi also held bilateral talks during G20 which were the fourth time this year and agreed on expanding trade.

There is also varied interest inside both the camps. While the United States is committed to strengthening the alliance to corner China, Abe is also looking at the relationship between Japan and China from a domestic viewpoint, considering Japan’s massive economic investment in China. Next year Xi will visit Japan and there are hopes of improvements in their bilateral relations. Russia sees a huge opportunity to create an environment that can keep China under tab by involving India on her side, this right during Russia-China honeymoon period. As the US-China conflict continues to stay longer, the diplomacy of neighboring countries such as India, Russia, and Japan will also have an impact going forward in this multi-polar world.

—————End of Article——-

The article was an absolute eye-opener to me. How India is being pursued from both camps, and still able to stand on her own feet strongly. Yet this is a very fluidic situation and the romance of the five powers is something that will shape the world going forward.

Coming back to the title of the article. As a student in Japan, I got very much excited to learn about YoJiJukugo (four letter idioms of Japanese language) and many wise ones, had their roots in Chinese classical books. The Romance of Three Kingdoms (an equivalent to Chinese Mahabharat) is one such treasured book about power tussle among three kingdoms that engulfed China. The epic is the bible for Asian leaders for strategies, tactics, leadership, loyalty, alliance and many more things. It is a must read, if you want to understand this part of the world. And as I see world affairs, I feel its Romance of Kingdoms all over again albeit, the kingdoms have risen from three to five.

In today’s multi-polar world, Xi Jinping has given himself the reign of China until he survives. Putin has extended his stay on the throne for the next six years. Both Abe and Modi will face very crucial elections next year. And it is very imperative for world order for them to continue leading as well to guide the spirit of Free and Fair in Indo-Pacific and maintain the equilibrium. But more importnatly today India is the centerstage of this Multi-polarity and the leader who steered India to this stage should continue to lead.

JAI Ho….and Jai Hind…

– DeshGujarat