In Arun Jaitley’s analysis of exit polls, 6 messages from voters to politiciansMay 20, 2019
By Arun Jaitley
Many of us may continue to squabble over correctness and accuracy of the Exit Polls. The hard reality is that when multiple Exit Polls convey the same message, the direction of the result broadly would be in consonance with the message. Exit Polls are based on personal interviews. The EVMs have no role. If the results of the Exit Polls and final results on the 23rd May, 2019 are in the same direction, the Opposition’s fake issue of the EVMs would also lose its non-existent rationale.
If the Exit Polls are read alongwith the 2014 election results, it would be clear that there is a huge maturing of Indian democracy taking place. The electorate keeps national interest paramount before exercising a choice on whom to vote for. When well-meaning people with similar ideas vote in the same direction, it leads to the making of a wave.
This maturing of democracy is visible from the following messages that the voter is sending:
-Dynastic parties, caste parties and the Obstructionists Left received a setback in 2014. This will be reiterated, loud and clear, in 2019.
-‘Coalition of Rivals’ are untenable alliances and the voters are no longer willing to trust them. Political analysts are confused but the voters are clear. They don’t elect hung Parliament where ugly and untenable coalitions have a role to play.
-The arithmetic of caste coalitions loses to the chemistry on the ground created for the front runner in the elections. This chemistry is in form of catching the imagination of the people on issues of national interest.
-Fake issues only satisfy the ‘manufacturers of fakery’. The voters don’t buy them.
-The personalised campaign against Prime Minister Modi did not cut much ice in 2014 and may not cut any ice in 2019. Leaders are judged on merit and not on caste or family names. Thus, the Prime Minister’s style of rising above caste and concentrating on performance related issues received far more acceptability with the electorate.
-I re-assert my earlier hypothesis that in the Congress the first family is no longer an asset but an albatross around neck of the Party. Without the family, they don’t get the crowd, with it they don’t get the votes.
Many Politicians believe that the ultimate wisdom lies only with them. They are, thus, unwilling for any radical solutions. The evolving ‘New India’ will accept structured parties with talent and ideological clarity concentrating on performance. If, however, the political parties are unwilling to get the message of 2014 and the possibly of 2019, then alienation from the electorate will only widen.
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