A special situation that favored AAP to win seats in Surat at the cost of Congress

Surat: Gujarat witnessed violent quota agitation led by Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) in year 2015. The agitation was mainly about the demand of OBC (Other Backward Class) status to Patels so that they can benefit from OBC quota. A particular area of Surat that has large presence of Patels migrated from Saurashtra was worst hit by violence during quota agitation. As large number of Patels in this area of Surat were upset with ruling BJP, they elected Congress councilors in year 2015 civic polls of Surat Municipal Corporation(SMC). Congress thus made entry in Patels populated areas of Surat on the shoulder of quota agitation led by PAAS and won 36 seats in SMC. BJP won 79 seats from other areas of Surat and continued to rule SMC. This was the story of year 2015 SMC election.

Ahead of year 2021 SMC elections, former PAAS agitators led by Alpesh Kathiria recommended certain names of candidates to Congress for Patels populated areas, from where Congress had won major chunk of seats in Surat in the background of quota agitation in 2015. While Congress OKayed some names like Dharmik Malvaiya, it didn’t approve some other names suggested by former PAAS group led by Alpesh Kathiria and present Working President of State Congress Hardik Patel.

This didn’t go well with Kathiria and others. They insisted Congress to field their choice of candidates or be ready to lose Patel pockets. Ahead of the nomination filing date, Congress leaders stopped taking phone calls of Kathiria. Angry Kathiria and others waited for Congress to approve the candidates recommended by them, but Congress didn’t give favor and partially rejected the list suggested by PAAS. The party silently gave mandates. Upset with this, PAAS asked Dharmik Malaviya not to file nomination as Congress candidate. Malaviya accepted PAAS decision and discontinued his nomination filing procession midway. PAAS asked other Congress candidates from Patel pockets to withdraw nominations or be read to suffer defeat. Two other Congress candidates who had already filed nominations, later withdrew from contest and thus total three Congress candidates didn’t remain in fray.

Kathiria issued open challenge to Congress party to come and hold a public meeting in Patel pockets of Surat. In the later phase of campaign, the media reported that State Congress chief Amit Chavda would visit Surat and hold a public meeting in Patel pockets. Reacting to this, Kathiria thanked Congress chief for accepting his challenge and warned him to face a showdown by PAAS. Congress chief cancelled his visit soon. Even Hardik Patel, working president of Gujarat Congress addressed only one token public meeting in Katargam but stayed mum otherwise in apparently tacit arrangement with former PAAS colleagues.

Rabid anti-BJP in the backdrop of year 2015 quota agitation, PAAS decided to teach a lesson to Congress for not fielding “correct” candidates and for “sidelining Hardik Patel in the party” and diverted support (Kathiria in fact was seen visiting AAP office in later days of campaign) in Patel pockets to Aam Admi Party (AAP), to which Hardik Patel was associated in initial days of his Patidar supremacy activism. This coupled with positive campaign of so called good public schools, clinics, free power etc. in Delhi created momentum for AAP campaign in Patel pockets of Surat.

In this background, the Aam Admi Party (AAP) could win 27 seats of SMC from a 36-seat chunk that Congress had won in 2015. AAP has replaced Congress in all these 27 seats in particular area, populated by particular segment of people in a special situation which we can describe as ‘fishing in troubled waters’. In fact, AAP was looking for an opportunity to gain from quota agitation since 2015.

So far as BJP is concerned, it continue to focus on its fight against main rival Congress and didn’t give importance to AAP, as doing so could prove counterproductive. This situation can be sum up this way – AAP was fighting against Congress and BJP but Congress and BJP were not fighting against AAP. They were fighting among each other, ignoring AAP. Or otherwise, BJP could call in Kapil Mishra and Congress could arrange visit of Ajay Maken to expose the highly marketed AAP achievements in Delhi. Division of anti-BJP votes between AAP and Congress could offer gains to BJP, perhaps this could be the approach of BJP in relation to AAP. However, taking benefit of PAAS – Congress tension and related arrangements, AAP just bulldozed Congress party and emerged victorious on 27 seats.

So is this a grand entry of AAP? Well, it’s specific to one specific locality, community and situation. AAP had otherwise fielded 470 candidates in six-city civic polls out of total 577 seats. But barring the special situation in specific pockets of Surat, it has not achieved any success.

While AAP has benefited at the cost of Congress, the BJP in Surat has won even more seats than in 2015. The party has up its number of seats from 79 last time to 93 this time.

Meanwhile AAP founder and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal will visit Surat on February 26 and hold a road show “to thank the voters.” Kejriwal had not visited Gujarat in the course of civic polls campaign this time. He had given a page full of advertisements in local dailies and TV interviews from Delhi to Gujarati news channels. He had sent his aides Dy CM Manish Sisodia, Sanjay Singh etc to Gujarat for campaign. While Sisodia held road show in Ahmedabad, Rajkot and Surat, the party could benefit in terms of seat win only in Surat due to the special situation described above. It’s worth noting that Gopal Italiya, the president of AAP Gujarat is the one who had hurled shoe at Minister of State for Home in the past during a press conference. Though Italiya is State AAP chief, he camped in Surat only and focused in Patel pockets to take maximum benefit of the arrangement with PAAS and related favorable situation.

Nevertheless, there were several issues of local importance also, that were put before the public by PAAS while insisting for not vote to BJP. Former quota agitators want government to withdraw cases against them. Rs. 200 professional tax is payable by diamond employees on behalf of their company. They want solution to this. There’s a good public school in Mota Varachha, but credit of that goes to its principal. Locals want more such quality public schools by SMC and the Government. There’s a waiting of 500 or around to get admission in this only one good public school in Mota Varahha. The issues of water meters, property tax, school fees, fines related to pandemic and traffic rules violation had also significant traction in public. For example, a social media video of police slapping fine for not wearing mask in Patel pockets would attract five lakh views and hundreds of angry comments on Facebook.

Gujarat BJP chief CR Patil today in victory speech at JP Chowk in Ahmedabad said he is pained by gains made by AAP in Surat while BJP was fighting Congress. Patil said, the party will find ways as solution to this new political development. DeshGujarat